Modelling biodiversity and ecosystem service loss to advance resilience

Biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) play a foundational role for the resilience of our societies, economies and quality of life. Nearly one million species face extinction, and ecosystem services are declining. If societies continue current production and consumption patterns, IPBES scientists expect that 30 percent to 50 percent of all species may be lost by the middle of the 21^st century. More than half of global GDP moderately or highly depends on biodiversity and ecosystem services. 

Measuring, tracking, reporting and forecasting expected BES developments is a prerequisite for action. Therefore, granular scenarios should model, both locally and regionally, the expected development of BES-impacting drivers and outcomes.

Together with our enabling partners AXA Research Fund, WWF, Swiss Re Institute and as a service contributor to Swiss Re, EY,  we invited scientific research institutions to apply for the grant programme and submit BES scenario research proposals.

On March 21^st 2023 we launched a call for applications for which we received a total of 13 applications. These were assessed during the period of May 16^th to June 23^rd by the enabling partners and the Jury.

Jury members were:

• Professor Dr. Florian Altermatt, University of Zurich / Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
• Corli Pretorius, UNEP-WCMC, UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)
• Professor Dr. Josef Settele, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig

Five institutions were identified as winners, they will receive USD 100 000 each to support their research. The list of institutions is available here.

The five awarded projects elaborate how land-use change, climate change, and social vulnerability influence biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) and community resilience across global, regional, and local contexts. The publication highlights results starting from the global modelling of mountain, island, and delta ecosystems (by University of Zurich), to a continental view on agricultural landscapes across Europe (by VU Amsterdam), to case studies on future-oriented conservation planning for Peru (by ETH Zurich), the role of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for climate adaptation for the state of Rio de Janeiro (by IIS Brazil), and forest and watershed ecosystems risk assessment and modelling for Belize (by UB-ERI Belize).

Integrating regional planning and ecosystem services modelling can provide valuable insights to decision-makers by improving their understanding of present challenges and supporting the adaptation to future challenges. Benefits provided by ecosystem services will change geographically. Measures with the greatest climate adaptation impact can guide local restoration and conservation policies. The projects suggest establishing nature restoration and the associated infrastructures as a societal priority. Biodiversity and ecosystem services matter globally, and they cannot be detached from their local context and relevance.

• Conservation and regional planning must become more forward looking, because global warming alters the conditions for, and needs of, current habitats. 
• Intense land-use changes or fragmentation of natural habitats – like expansion of agriculture or of urban areas, especially in tropical areas – often leads to a decline of biodiversity.
• Nature-based Solutions (NbS) – like wetland or forest restoration – can reduce risks from flood or coastal hazards, for example.
• Local communities face increasing climate risks. Community knowledge with scenario modelling can support water and land management.

The projects have demonstrated that modelling of BES loss is possible through scenarios at local, regional or global level, but assessing their social and economic impacts remains challenging. Combining BES modelling with assessing social and economic dependencies and impacts remains a frontier interdisciplinary research area.

Read the full report here

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