Modelling biodiversity and ecosystem service loss to advance resilience

Biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) play a foundational role for the resilience of our societies, economies and quality of life. Nearly one million species face extinction, and ecosystem services are declining. If societies continue current production and consumption patterns, IPBES scientists expect that 30 percent to 50 percent of all species may be lost by the middle of the 21^st century. More than half of global GDP moderately or highly depends on biodiversity and ecosystem services. 

Measuring, tracking, reporting and forecasting expected BES developments is a prerequisite for action. Therefore, granular scenarios should model, both locally and regionally, the expected development of BES-impacting drivers and outcomes.

Together with our enabling partners AXA Research Fund, WWF, Swiss Re Institute and as a service contributor to Swiss Re, EY,  we invited scientific research institutions to apply for the grant programme and submit BES scenario research proposals.

On March 21^st 2023 we launched a call for applications for which we received a total of 13 applications. These were assessed during the period of May 16^th to June 23^rd by the enabling partners and the Jury.

Jury members were:

• Professor Dr. Florian Altermatt, University of Zurich / Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
• Corli Pretorius, UNEP-WCMC, UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)
• Professor Dr. Josef Settele, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig

Five institutions were identified as winners, they will receive USD 100 000 each to support their research. The list of institutions is available here.

The challenge has three main purposes, namely, to:

• Generate knowledge (forward-looking views: BES vulnerability, gradual BES decline up to tipping points, decline reversal)
• Support decision-making
• Build foundations of a globally accessible data set to allow other stakeholders to contribute to scenario thinking

The BES scenarios should be relevant for livelihood management, regional and national policy-making and corporate strategic and operational planning. Findings and data will help research institutions, local governments, businesses and non-profit organisations to reduce BES loss.

Proposals should demonstrate that project findings will be scientifically outstanding, practically implementable and usable for public and corporate risk identification and risk assessment.

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