Swiss Re Foundation, AXA Foundation for Human Progress, WWF, and EY (as a service provider to Swiss Re) publish results of the modelling biodiversity and ecosystem services scenarios award

The five awarded projects elaborate how land-use change, climate change, and social vulnerability influence biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) and community resilience across global, regional, and local contexts. The publication highlights results starting from the global modelling of mountain, island, and delta ecosystems (by University of Zurich), to a continental view on agricultural landscapes across Europe (by VU Amsterdam), to case studies on future-oriented conservation planning for Peru (by ETH Zurich), the role of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for climate adaptation for the state of Rio de Janeiro (by IIS Brazil), and forest and watershed ecosystems risk assessment and modelling for Belize (by UB-ERI Belize).

Integrating regional planning and ecosystem services modelling can provide valuable insights to decision-makers by improving their understanding of present challenges and supporting the adaptation to future challenges. Benefits provided by ecosystem services will change geographically. Measures with the greatest climate adaptation impact can guide local restoration and conservation policies. The projects suggest establishing nature restoration and the associated infrastructures as a societal priority. Biodiversity and ecosystem services matter globally, and they cannot be detached from their local context and relevance.

• Conservation and regional planning must become more forward looking, because global warming alters the conditions for, and needs of, current habitats. 
• Intense land-use changes or fragmentation of natural habitats – like expansion of agriculture or of urban areas, especially in tropical areas – often leads to a decline of biodiversity.
• Nature-based Solutions (NbS) – like wetland or forest restoration – can reduce risks from flood or coastal hazards, for example.
• Local communities face increasing climate risks. Community knowledge with scenario modelling can support water and land management.

The projects have demonstrated that modelling of BES loss is possible through scenarios at local, regional or global level, but assessing their social and economic impacts remains challenging. Combining BES modelling with assessing social and economic dependencies and impacts remains a frontier interdisciplinary research area.

Read the full report here